REAL ESTATE UPDATE

The Spring Market - 2018

It's gonna be fast and furious, starting in mid-February.   My crystal ball is clear on this. 

 

The “Historic Low Inventory” of the last 4 months is about to disappear.

 

We will see a weekly influx of new homes on the market; prices will rise; and competition will be very high.  

 

Multiple offers will be the norm.  

              Prices have been rising steadily in                                                           ... while Time on Market has decreased

               our area for 3 full years now...                                                                 dramatically. 

It is a GREAT time to sell... and it is still a good time to buy, since many analysts predict that prices will continue to rise for a another year or two before flattening out.   Last year's inventory has virtually disappeared, and we are about to see new homes coming on the market each week until June.   

Will this coming summer be as dead and quiet as the last three summers?  Will we have a third year in a row of multiple offers all spring, followed by a late summer doldrums?  We'll see... But without a doubt -- the spring is going to have a lot of buyers, and not enough sellers.  

         Call me if you want to talk:  Larry LaVercombe, Lakes Area Realty - 612.845.5273

and read, below, for a big picture that still stands.

 

The Spring Market, 2017.  

 

As I anticipated last September (see the takeaway, below, in my previous update)  -- the "spring market" has already started, and with our extremely low inventory, homes priced below $650,000* are flying off the market.  At very strong prices.  

These graphs tell the story. 

* Homes priced above $650,000 are not following the same patterns, as their inventory has not been so greatly reduced. 

Both Median Sales Prices and Price-per-Square-Foot ratios have been increasing steadily for the past two years, with last year's appreciation doubling the previous year.  

             And with the number-of-days-on-market roughly                         ...sellers are regularly receiving almost 99% of

                      half of what it was in June of 2015...                                                           their current asking price.                                          

What does this mean for the near and longer-term future?

Short term -- we are going to see low inventory for a long time.

Inventory is currently at a twenty-year low, so with the

Month's Supply at HALF of what is considered "normal" -- 

Inventory will stay low at least through the end of the spring market.

Which means -- for one thing -- if you are thinking about selling,

you won't miss the market by not getting your sign out before

May.   We might even buck the trend of the last 3 years and NOT

have another extremely slow summer... that is, activity and pricing 

may stay robust all the way until September.  

Here is what I'm telling my buyers:  Be ready to compete, because half the sales I'm seeing right now are going in multiple offers; the well-priced homes are selling very fast.  -- But that said, there are new listings coming on every day. So get your loan homework done --  be mentally prepared to compete... 

And then be selective about making your offer.   If you haven't seen the one you want yet ---- WAIT.   Another new house will come on the market soon.  

 

There will not be many homes to choose from at any given time this season, but new ones will continue to appear and disappear as they are snatched up by the motivated and well-prepared buyers.   

So be ready for the one you want.  And then don't miss it by being tentative.   Prices are going up for the next two or three years.    That's what it says in my crystal ball. 

Larry LaVercombe

    Realtor

       and

    Publisher -  Linden Hills.com

REAL ESTATE UPDATE

The Fall Market, 2016.  

Last spring, I predicted a year of price appreciation and fast sales, along with a sustained period of modest to healthy appreciation in our neighborhoods.

That seems to have borne out – though for the third year in a row, our market experienced a significant slowing in June and early July.   In each of the past three years – March, April and May were

FAR better for sellers than were the next two months.  

June 2016

As for what to expect this fall - note that in each of the last three years, we've seen slight reductions in value/price as the weather turns cold...  and in each of the following springs, we saw modest apprecation. 

November 2015

November 2014

November 2013

Another note:  That our major gains occurred in 2013, and this last year, 2016.  

What's the takeaway ?  If you are planning to sell within the next 12 months, I would recommend being ready to list in late-winter and early spring, and NOT waiting until mid-June to go on the market.   The early bird has been getting the higher paying worm these last three years...

 

If you're a buyer -- or if your friends are hoping to get into this market -- I would recommend patience when it comes to finding exactly what you want.  We are likely to have a robust market next year, with a full, rich inventory.   Be ready to purchase when what you want comes along... and also know, that more homes will come as the season extends into summer.   Last June not only had the lowest price-per-square-foot, it had the HIGHEST number of new listings.  

And Hey -- Why not -- I'd also recommend that you call me.  :-) 

We know the market.  We know the streets and the schools and we live in the same kind of houses that you live in... We're Lakes Area Realty, we serve the lakes area, we appreciate the beauty and the nuance and We know how to buy and sell it.

Larry LaVercombe

    Realtor

       and

    Publisher -  Linden Hills.com

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